← CoreTCG Phantom Monarchs Regional Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at CoreTCG Phantom Monarchs Regional Championship
decks
4
(3.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
29
15-10-4
overall winrate
58.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1416
· median 1448
· range 1254–1516
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1164
Q3 1374
1736
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.9% | +3.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Genbu | 3.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 35.2% | -11.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.9% | -11.6 |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Alice | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
